#14 On the Brink
Volatile votes, one big fortnight ahead, and defending dynamism
Welcome to the 14th instalment of the Liberal Digest. Parliament is gearing up for its second big decision on a matter of conscience this week – with MPs on Tuesday having approved an amendment to the Crime and Policing Bill to decriminalise abortion, they will soon cast their votes on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill. Elsewhere, tensions between Iran and Israel continued to escalate, while President Donald Trump continued to leave everyone in the dark about the role the United States will, or will not, play in the conflict.
In this week’s edition: further calls to reform the ECHR, the prospect of changes to Britain’s non-dom regime, and an assault on democracy in Minnesota.
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Stop the Press!
Best op eds, interviews, news and analysis of the week in the old-school media
Labour MPs Jake Richards and Dan Tomlinson wrote for The Times about why the European Convention on Human Rights should be reformed, but not scrapped:
“From bogus asylum claims to the deportation of dangerous criminals, the unwieldy reach of the modern operation of the ECHR can hamper effective government. The prime minister is right to call for an “insurgent” approach to governing, to cut through constraints to deliver on political priorities. We know Reform and the increasingly desperate Conservatives will seek to withdraw from the convention altogether. Some of the more outlandish judgments from Strasbourg will be spun to suit this agenda. Instead, the government should offer serious and practical changes to see off this threat and deliver for the British people.”
Jonn Elledge urges the Government to be honest with the public about the state of the country’s finances:
“That would make it easier to make the case for the further tax rises that, I’m sorry, are almost certainly coming. It would allow the Prime Minister to adopt a tone of moral seriousness that fits both the geopolitical moment and his own personality, while framing Reform and the Tories as an irresponsible bunch of chancers treating the electorate like children. And it’d help sell the painful choices that lie ahead. Being able to explain things like the now reversed Winter Fuel Allowance cuts would never have made them popular – but it would at least make them explicable. Without the narrative to explain it, policies like that just look mean.”
Ryan Streeter writes for CapX about the importance of and ingredients for promoting economic dynamism:
“Contrary to conventional wisdom, dynamic societies also record higher rates of job satisfaction among working-class people. The idea that disruptive and innovative economies create economic anxiety among working people is one of the more empirically dubious beliefs that is commonly accepted as fact. More companies trying out new technologies means more jobs and more opportunity – working people benefit from these as much as those in professional jobs. Surveys show that job dissatisfaction and unhappiness more generally are prevalent in places with higher levels of risk aversion, close-mindedness and lower levels of recorded innovation.”
Steve Davies reflects on spending a month in modern China:
“This is a very dynamic and innovative society that is also intensely competitive at an individual and familial level. It is highly futuristic and forward looking but also connected to its past, which is venerated in various ways. It has an authoritarian but effective and competent government. How long all this will survive is another matter but right now China is an advert for the idea of “state capacity”.”
Brent Hoberman writes in The Times about how Britain’s immigration system must improve if we’re to win:
“[A]s acceleration increases, so do the stakes. The global war for talent is intensifying. The UK must remain a magnet for the world’s best minds. If Britain wants to lead, it must act decisively. That means expanding and simplifying visas, reducing friction for international founders, encouraging early teams with the right incentives and committing to long-term policy stability.”
City A.M. reported the latest results from S&W’s Business Owners Sentiment Survey, which found four in ten entrepreneurs are considering moving their firms overseas:
“The stark findings follow months of warnings from UK plc that the £40bn tax raid announced by the Chancellor in her Autumn Budget had sapped business confidence and eaten into their bottom lines. Major changes announced to both the rate and threshold of employers’ national insurance contributions will raise roughly £24bn off the backs of British businesses. The rise in capital gains tax from 20 to 24 per cent will generate the Exchequer an estimated £2bn a year. Entrepreneurs were also hit by changes to inheritance tax (IHT), after the government closed a decades-old carve out – known as Business Asset Disposal Relief – that allowed business owners to pass their companies down a generation free from the levy. The change is currently slated to come into force in April next year.”
But changes to Britain’s recently tweaked non-dom regime could be afoot, according to the Financial Times:
“Chancellor Rachel Reeves is exploring reversing a decision to charge UK inheritance tax on the global assets of non-doms, following a spate of departures and lobbying by the City of London, according to government officials and financiers briefed on the discussions. The exposure of worldwide assets to inheritance tax at 40 per cent — which came into force in April — is the element of scrapping the non-dom regime that is “causing most heartburn”, one government official said. The Treasury is reviewing the decision, they added.”
The Economist describes the grooming-gangs scandal as a stain on the British state:
[E]ven now, it is impossible to know the scale of this problem. That is in part because these are horribly complex cases, victims fear coming forward and investigations were badly botched. Police forces failed to collect data. Grooming gangs have been identified in dozens of towns and cities. In Rotherham alone, thanks to an unusually thorough police investigation led by the National Crime Agency (NCA), 1,100 victims were identified. Our rough calculation suggests that tens of thousands of victims could be awaiting justice.
The Guardian: English universities barred from enforcing blanket bans on student protests
BBC: MPs vote to decriminalise abortion for women in England and Wales
The Independent: Starmer warns Labour rebels there will be no more concessions on benefit cuts
CapX: Could fantasy football make free markets popular?
The Telegraph: Mel Stride: We will never do a deal with Reform
Stacks of Freedom
Highlights from our fellow Substackers
Tim Leuing hatches a plan to level up the UK by poaching academic talent from America:
James O’Malley explains why he changed his mind on ID cards:
Alex Nowrasteh fears that US intervention in Iran could trigger the biggest refugee crisis ever seen:
Noah Smith discusses why democracies pip authoritarian regimes at war:
Jason Crawford publishes the latest instalment of the Techno-Humanist Manifesto:
Emma Buckland assess efforts to phase-out eggs from battery cages:
Wonk World
Ideas and analysis from the think tanks, academia and other clever sorts
Daniel Herring published a post-Spending Review briefing note on the cost of the British State:
“It has sometimes been said that Britain is becoming a health service with a nuclear deterrent attached. It would perhaps be more accurate to say that the state is becoming a combination of health service, benefit office and debt collection agency – with all other functions squeezed to compensate. If we are to avoid this, we need to fundamentally reconsider the role and reach of the state, while at the same time getting serious about radical, pro-growth reforms.”
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation argue the case for upholding protections to the Bayh-Dole Act:
“America’s universities have become engines of innovation that anchor their state and regional economies and generate new products and technologies that immensely enhance the lives of Americans and global citizens alike. The Bayh-Dole Act has played an instrumental role in that transformation, enabling universities to own the IP rights stemming from federally funded R&D and giving rise to the academic technology transfer ecosystem. Yet, America’s leadership in university-driven innovation is under threat from a number of dimensions, including reduced federal funding for university research and calls for the improper use of Bayh-Dole march-in rights. Policymakers need to resist efforts to weaken American universities’ role as centers of R&D and innovation and as drivers of regional economic and employment growth and instead redouble commitment to policies that enhance universities’ roles in driving America’s tech economy.”
Pedro Serôdio and David Lawrence rail against mooted plans to compel British households to invest in British assets:
“Proposals to channel more domestic capital toward UK companies, such as the British ISA or UK equity requirements for pensions, are well-intentioned but fundamentally misdiagnose the problem. They focus on the symptoms of capital market inefficiency rather than the root causes. The scale of the implied market failure – that UK markets are so broken that only coerced retail investment can fix them – is implausible in a sophisticated G7 economy. This approach treats a symptom with a tool that ignores the underlying disease, risking significant harm for no discernible benefit.”
Tax Policy Associates: The small business tax crisis: 40% of tax due isn’t paid
Hear Hear
Podcasts for weekend listening
Stuart Ritchie and Tom Chivers inspected the evidence for and against a four-day week on the latest episode of The Studies Show:
Tom Homan was interviewed by The Daily about the increasingly aggressive immigration raids that are taking place across the United States:
Posting to Policy
Best of social media this week
Dan Neidle: Wither wealth taxes
Alec Stapp: Let them come and they will built it
Timothy B. Lee: Show AVs the green light
Alys Key: Progress
Further Afield
Interesting stuff from around the world
President Trump declared he will make a decision on whether or not to get directly involved in the Iran-Israel conflict within the next two weeks:
“Mr. Trump is willing to get the U.S. involved if that's what it takes to knock out the site, sources said. As of Thursday, he was still reviewing his options and has not made a firm decision either way. He has discussed the logistics of using bunker-buster bombs, two of the sources said. It was not immediately clear how much of the U.S. military infrastructure needed for a strike was in place or how much time it would take to move assets into position. One option Mr. Trump has considered is that Iran could disable Fordo on its own, if its leaders so choose, two of the sources said.”
More details emerged about the 57-year-old man shot who shot and killed Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives Melissa Hortman last Saturday:
“The man accused of assassinating the top Democrat in the Minnesota House held deeply religious and politically conservative views, telling a congregation in Africa two years ago that the U.S. was in a “bad place” where most churches didn’t oppose abortion. Vance Luther Boelter, 57, was captured late Sunday following a two-day search authorities described as the largest in the state’s history. Boelter is accused of impersonating a police officer and gunning down former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, in their home outside Minneapolis. Democratic Gov. Tim Walz described the shooting as “a politically motivated assassination.””
NBC News: Trump, in reversal, may exempt farms and hotels from immigration raids
Washington Post: Trump administration considers adding 36 countries to travel ban list
BBC: Police ban Budapest Pride march, but mayor vows it will go ahead
The Guardian: New Rio de Janeiro law requires public hospitals to display anti-abortion signs
Graph of the Week
Via YouGov