#16 Stop Crying Your Heart Out
Market bonding, bad maths, and the scale of our housing problem.
Welcome to the 16th instalment of the Liberal Digest. As tears ran down the Chancellor’s face on Wednesday, yields on gilts crept up – but could the market’s reaction actually strengthen Rachel Reeves’ position? Despite her tax-expanding first Budget, fans of free markets might want to consider who the alternative could be. Meanwhile, in America, President Trump’s signature spending bill squeaked through the Senate and the House.
In this week’s edition: Corbyn is back, bond markets rule, and we meet the man who will ruin New York.
Did we miss something? Let us know.
Stop the Press!
Best op eds, interviews, news and analysis of the week in the old-school media
Rohan Silva delivers some optimism on our job prospects with AI:
“Back in 1800, few could have imagined that a century later, hundreds of thousands of Britons would be working on the railways or lighting gas lamps in cities. And in 1900, no newspaper writer fretting about industrialisation could have foreseen that by 2000, large numbers of Brits would be working in roles as unimaginable as IT managers or HR professionals. If the past is any guide, the same will be true in Britain in a hundred years.”
Kate Andrews introduces us to the man who will ruin New York:
“He refused to condemn the phrase ‘globalise the intifada’, and still would not do so last weekend after securing the nomination. While he is canny enough to reject the ‘communist’ label, videos have surfaced of him promoting the ‘end goal’ of ‘seizing the means of production’. In another, an off-screen interviewer celebrates Mamdani for embracing the taboos of US politics: socialism, Islam and Palestine. ‘Let’s go, baby!’ he cheers. Meanwhile his campaign promises to shift the tax burden to ‘richer and whiter neighbourhoods’. His focus on ‘richer’ computes. Why mention race?”
David Gauke points out how bad Labour MPs are at maths
“Perhaps Labour MPs never believed the rhetoric about tough choices. They are certainly not prepared to make them over welfare matters (see also winter fuel payments). They are likely to be in for a shock in the autumn when, contrary to their manifesto commitments, Labour may well be forced to put up one or more of the big taxes (and no, wealth taxes won’t raise the money that is needed). If Labour MPs are worried about poll ratings now, wait until the winter.”:
Reed Schwartz writes about the Georgist roots of American libertarianism:
“Today, the most powerful supporter of George — a radical who won international celebrity for his attacks on inequality and rent-seeking — is a billionaire whose best-selling book instructs capitalists to create monopolies. Peter Thiel frequently praises George in his public speaking and writing; several years ago he co-hosted a seminar with Tyler Cowen on Progress and Poverty, and he has taught the book in political theory courses at Stanford. While Thiel is more interested in George’s economics than his libertarian predecessors, he shares the apostate Georgists’ flirtation with secession.”
Dominic Grieve argues that Britain must avow its support for the UN Convention Against Torture:
“Rather than weakening protections, it is vital that countries such as the UK — in an age of geopolitical instability — affirm their commitment to the total ban on torture and make clear that they expect all states, including allies, to do the same. Suggestions that article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which prohibits torture and inhuman and degrading treatment, can be tweaked at the edges to facilitate deportations raise obvious concerns about what the practical result will in fact be for those affected.”
Jeremy Corbyn is reportedly in talks to form a new left-wing party to offer an alternative to Labour at the next election:
“Asked directly whether they were preparing to form a new party, Corbyn did not rule it out. “That grouping [of independents] will come together, there will be an alternative,” he said. The Independent Alliance includes four other independent MPs who all beat Labour candidates and MPs over the party’s position on Gaza. The group has the same number of MPs as Reform UK and the Democratic Unionist party, which each have five, and more than the Green party and Plaid Cymru on four.”
Jonathan Thornhill reports that Britain’s startups have lost faith in Labour:
“Britain’s startup community initially cheered the incoming government’s promise of growth, growth, growth. Labour’s excellent pre-election Startup Scaleup report, promising to make Britain the best place in the world to start and grow a business, also raised expectations. But disillusion has quickly spread. According to a survey released by The Entrepreneurs Network last week, just 4% of founders thought the government understood their needs as entrepreneurs. Only 19% were optimistic about the prospects for the economy over the next 12 months.”
The Economist: Britain’s industrial strategy is unlikely to boost its economy
The Telegraph: Broadcasters must air view that trans women are women, says Ofcom
BBC: New plan will fundamentally rewire NHS, says PM
Guido Fawkes: Motability payments going to people with tennis elbow
Stacks of Freedom
Highlights from our fellow Substackers
Sam Dumitriu explains how policy stands in the way of climate control:
Tim Leunig plots a new direction for reforming VAT:
Archie Hall discusses why bond markets rule everything around us:
Noah Smith pens an epic piece on the dawn of the posthuman age:
Santi Ruiz ponders what’s next for DOGE:
Tom Harwood dubs Rachel Reeves as a ChINO:
Wonk World
Ideas and analysis from the think tanks, academia and other clever sorts
The Tony Blair Institute put forward ideas for how to improve the Spending Review:
“Fixing the Spending Review has to be about more than delivering efficiencies. A comprehensive redesign of the system itself is needed, putting in place an AI-powered real-time portfolio-management system. This would enable a periodic “Strategic Review” to replace the current clunky process, focusing on a refresh of government objectives and alignment of programmes to common goals.”
The Centre for Policy Studies have asked how many homes the UK needs - the answer: more than we thought:
“Decades of lacklustre housebuilding and recent record migration have left the UK with a shortfall of more than 6.5 million homes… the UK has fallen dramatically behind comparable European countries, with British families paying the price through unaffordable homes… if England had matched France’s housebuilding rate since 1982, we would have built 2.9 million more homes. England’s housing stock grew over those years by 0.8% per year, compared to France’s 1.1%.”
The Taxpayers’ Alliance have launched a new benefits dashboard
Hear Hear
Podcasts for weekend listening
Ezra Klein sat down with Matt Ygelsias to discuss the ins and outs of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’:
Posting to Policy
Best of social media this week
Maxwell Marlow: Peace for thee but not for me
Alex Tabarrok: Why Amazon is prime
Steve Davis: Start of the slaughter
Luis Garicano: Pull your socks up, Britain
Alex Chalmers: Nuclear reaction
Further Afield
Interesting stuff from around the world
Kimlar Abrego Garcia alleges that he suffered beatings, sleep deprivation and psychological torture after being deported in March:
“In the new court documents, Abrego Garcia said detainees at CECOT “were confined to metal bunks with no mattresses in an overcrowded cell with no windows, bright lights that remained on 24 hours a day, and minimal access to sanitation.” He said prison officials told him repeatedly that they would transfer him to cells with people who were gang members who would “tear” him apart. Abrego Garcia said he saw others in nearby cells violently harm each other and heard screams from people throughout the night.”
Fifteen members of the Israeli Government signed a petition urging Benjamin Netanyahu to annex the West Bank:
“Cabinet ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party called on Wednesday for Israel to annex the Israeli-occupied West Bank before the Knesset recesses at the end of the month. They issued a petition ahead of Netanyahu's meeting next week with U.S. President Donald Trump, where discussions are expected to centre on a potential 60-day Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas.”
PBS: House Republicans pass Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ tax and spending bill
Graph of the Week
